Alberta: Change and inertia during volatile times 

Lisa-Marie Swanepoel, Carly Heck, Lars K. Hallstrom and Nicholas Yarmey 

Introduction  

​​​Alberta is expected to grow from 1.6 million to 7.1 million people from 1971-2050, potentially doubling its proportion of the Canadian population from 7.5% to 15%.^1,2 As the population grows, it is expected to diversify and inject new ideas, perspectives, and values into the social, political, and economic spheres, which will challenge some of the long-standing political traditions of the province. The increasing diversity in Alberta extends to its rural communities. While most newcomers to the province settle in or around the major urban areas of Calgary and Edmonton, many other communities in the province have seen population growth over recent years.ⁱ With that growth comes increasingly diverse ethnic, linguistic, religious, and economic populations. As the 2023 provincial election demonstrated, the bloc voting patterns of the past are starting to unwind. In that election, not only did the victorious party, the United Conservative Party ​(UCP)​, only win 52.3% of the popular vote, but in doing so, they lost 11 seats in the Legislature. The Opposition, the New Democratic Party​ (NDP)​ gained 15 seats. As a result, the province is, for perhaps the first time, veering into being a two-party, rather than single-party dominant, political space. This evolving political landscape forms the backdrop for this version of the State of Rural Canada Alberta chapter. While both political contests and public opinion data point to the reality of a province that is increasingly moderate on many issues, it is also a province that is divided along multiple lines, including climate change, taxation, public debt, religion, certain individual freedoms, and social equity issues. In this chapter, we emphasize the long-standing ideological tensions that exist within the province, and counter the increasingly common biases that shape Canadians’ perceptions of Albertans.  

Since the 2019 election of the UCP, the politics and actions of the Albertan Government and its citizens have increasingly been in the media spotlight. Media coverage ranged from border blockades during the pandemic, convoys that occupied downtown Ottawa, to Alberta wanting its own police force and pension plan.^ii,iii,iv Alberta’s political culture has commonly been portrayed as being centred around historical patterns of Western Alienation and continued pressure on provincial politicians to stand up to Ottawa. Such portrayals often draw upon the populist, rural, Christian, and agricultural history of the province. Therefore, many Canadians may see the province, and particularly rural Albertans, as socially and politically backward-looking, conservative, and even exnovative. In fact, even Albertans may see themselves as more conservative than they actually are.^v   

After almost 15 years of austerity budgets driven by low energy prices, the province now benefits (briefly) from a substantial surplus, yet is falling back into well-established energy-based dependency^vi and high spending levels.^vii With declining resource revenues, the government’s most recent fiscal plan projects increasing taxpayer supported debt into 2027.^viii At the same time, fiscal and political support for local governments and economic development continues to be low. For example, recently tabled legislation (Bills 18, 20, and 21)^ix,x,xi serves to further erode municipal autonomy and independence. Rural development specifically has long been de-prioritized for many years; the very term frequently appears and disappears as new ministries are named. Subsequently, although Alberta may be a significant contributor to the Canadian economy, it continues to struggle with innovation and often leaves smaller communities to their own devices to manage revenue, spending, sustainability, community services, and supports. Our case study in this chapter illustrates an example of such community-driven innovation in the Altario Agriculture Academy.  

​​​​​Overview of Alberta  

Alberta is home to 45 First Nations and 140 reserves across Treaties 6, 7, and 8, eight Métis settlements (the only secure land base for Métis in all of Canada), and 398 municipalities designated by the Municipal Government Act 2023. Of these municipalities, 19 are classified as cities (population greater than 10,000).^xii Local governments may range from metropolitan cities with millions of citizens, to small communities such as villages and hamlets (Table 1).  

Rural communities have historically been defined as communities with a population below 10,000, separating cities from rural spaces such as towns, villages, and hamlets.^xiii From a policy standpoint, and more informally, rural Alberta has often been defined more pragmatically as any community outside the two largest metropolitans in the province, Edmonton and Calgary. This chapter defines rural as everything outside the Edmonton and Calgary census subdivisions (CSDs). Based on this definition, Edmonton and Calgary together make up 54.4% of Alberta’s population yet only occupy 0.25% of Alberta’s land. Comparatively, Alberta’s northern land-use planning regions (Athabasca and Peace) are much more sparsely populated, making up 66.7% of Alberta’s land area and 11.0% of the population.^xiv Since the mid-20^th century, political priorities for northern Alberta (also called the Unsettled Area by the government) have focused on forestry and resource management.^xv  

Table 1. Types of municipalities in Alberta (N=398) and summary statistics of 2023 population^xvi 

		Population (2023)
Municipality Type	Count	Min	Max	Mean	Median	Total	% of AB
City	19	12,594	1,306,784	160,491	36,060	3,049,332	68.94%
Municipal District	63	110	41,028	7,499	4,914	472,413	10.68%
Town	105	495	32,199	4,495	2,470	471,944	10.67%
Specialized Municipality	6	4,738	109,004	40,094	10,952	240,565	5.44%
First Nations	48	382	12,868	2,879	2,107	138,195	3.12%
Village	80	92	1,164	410	338	32,820	0.74%
Summer Village	51	15	306	116	97	5,921	0.13%
Metis Settlement	8	310	978	530	483	4,238	0.10%
Special Areas	1	4,238	4,238	4,238	4,238	4,238	0.10%
Improvement District	7	0	1,004	347	156	2,429	0.05%
Townsite	1	1,080	1,080	1,080	1,080	1,080	0.02%
Total	398					4,423,175	100%

Alberta’s population 

As of January 2024, Alberta has a population of 4,800,768, the fourth highest province or territory in Canada, and comprising 11.8% of the national population.^xvii Between 2016 and 2021, Alberta’s population grew 4.8%, with the majority of that growth occurring in the Edmonton and Calgary census metropolitan areas (CMAs). Of the 195,460 people added to the province’s population in that period, 95% were in the Edmonton and Calgary CMAs. The census subdivisions with the three highest population growth rates were all suburban areas in the Edmonton and Calgary CMAs: Cochrane (+24.5%), Airdrie (+20.3%), and Beaumont (+19.7%).^xviii It is expected that by 2051, 81% of all Albertans will live in the Edmonton-Calgary Corridor.¹⁹ Since 2022, Alberta’s population growth has been accelerating (Figure 1). Between 2023 and 2024, the province’s population increased by 4.4% (approximately 202,000 people​)​, the largest annual growth in over four decades.^xix  

Figure 1. Components of population growth and growth rate in Alberta by quarter, 1972 to 2023²¹ 

Demographic profile 

Alberta’s population growth is currently driven by international immigration (55%), followed by natural growth (reproduction) (28%) and interprovincial migration (17%).⁸ Alberta’s fertility rate is below replacement value (2.1)^xx at 1.45 children per woman.^xxi The mean age of residents in Alberta is 41.6 years, close to the national averag​e of 4​​1​​.​​9 years​.¹⁹ There are important demographic differences between urban and rural Alberta. Approximately one-tenth of rural Albertans identify as a visible minority (10.6%) or immigrant (11.4%), considerably fewer than in urban areas (42.0% and 33.0%, respectively). Conversely, rural Alberta is home to a significantly larger Indigenous population (9.8%) compared to urban areas (4.3%). Beyond this, the current population demographics reveal three key differences: 1) birth rates are lower in rural Alberta compared to urban Alberta; 2) a greater proportion of Albertans aged 20 to 59 live in urban areas than in rural areas (Figure 2); and, 3) the rural population in Alberta is slightly older, with 16.1% of the population aged 65 years and above, as opposed to 13.6% in urban areas.^xxii  

Figure 2. Urban and rural Alberta population pyramid, 2021²⁵ 

An overview of rural realities in Alberta 

Political diversity and tension across the province 

A recent study found that many Albertans identify as more centrist or moderate politically, with polarized views present in both urban and rural communities (see Figure 3).⁷ However, there are pronounced differences in what drives people to vote for either NDP or UCP. For example, NDP voters were driven by ​​​​“disaffection with Alberta’s political establishment and a strong sense of economic justice and national identity.”^xxiii In contrast, UCP voters were motivated by regionalism, exclusionary attitudes, and oil protectionism.  

Figure 3. Distribution of ideological self-placement* by community size⁷

*0 means very left-wing, 10 means very right-wing, and 4-6 are centrist or moderate. 

These motivations also translate into policy positions. The 2021 Canadian Election Study (which sampled about 1,300 Albertans) showed that, compared to those on the political left, conservative Albertans were nearly three times more likely to believe Canada would have fewer problems if there were a stronger emphasis on ​​“traditional family values” and that we have “gone too far in pushing equal rights.” ^xxiv Conservatives were also more than two times more likely to believe it should be legal to practice conversion therapy on 2SLGBTQ+ minors in order to change their sexual orientation or gender identity. In addition, the UCP recently announced a new suite of policies that prohibit use of hormone therapy in gender-affirming care for Albertans under 16 years old.^xxv These sentiments and policy positions reflect attitudes that can become overt acts of hostility, as evident in occurrences such as the vandalization and banning of rainbow sidewalks, protests against 2SLGBTQ+ events, and explicitly homophobic and transphobic positions from elected officials.^xxvi,xxvii  

Economy 

Alberta’s economy continues to be viewed as resilient despite increasing interest rates, rising costs in general, and slower economic growth over the past decade.^xxviii Alberta’s gross domestic product (GDP) at Basic Prices was $336.3 billion in 2023,¹⁰ with rural Alberta accounting for 26% of the provincial GDP.^xxix Provincial GDP growth is slowing due to inflationary pressures and declining energy prices. Of Alberta’s revenue in 2022/23, 36% relied on natural resources (Figure 4). Consequently, Alberta’s economy is becoming more resource dependent and thus, is exposed to greater potential volatility.  

Figure 4. Government of Alberta revenue sources by percent of total annual revenue, 2008-09 to 2025-26*^xxx 

*2022-23 to 2025-26 are forecasts/targets.  

In rural Alberta, the top five employing industries are health care and social assistance (11.8%), retail trade (11.1%), construction (10.2%), mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction (7.1%), and educational services (6.4%).²⁴ Unemployment rates are rising for both urban and rural Alberta, yet rural Alberta’s rates ​have remain​ed lower than urban Alberta for the past three decades.​ In the Canadian context, ​what is known as the “Alberta Advantage,” or Alberta’s relative affordability, is disappearing. Alberta has the slowest wage growth in the country, which has resulted in up to a 10% reduction in workers’ purchasing power.^xxxi Calgary and Edmonton are now among the most expensive Canadian cities.  

Innovation in rural Alberta 

Rural communities have dramatically changed as a result of decades of neoliberal and Keynesian (staples-based and centrally-planned) policies, social and economic restructuring, aging populations, and out-migration.^xxxii The current rural state has been labeled as one of “reactionary incoherence.” ^xxxiii  From a legal and constitutional standpoint, local governments are relatively weak compared to provincial and federal bodies.^{xxxiv xxxv}Despite increased responsibilities for local governments (e.g., infrastructure, social housing, and welfare), there has been an insufficient and corresponding increase in resource and jurisdictional support from senior levels of government.^xxxvi For example, in 2021 the provincial government’s 3-year fiscal plan reduced Municipal Sustainability Initiative funding by 25% for all municipalities.^xxxvii The M​unicipal ​S​ustainability ​I​nitiative​ is to be replaced by the Local Government Fiscal Framework in 2024-2025. The ​new framework​ has a more stable funding allocation formula, but some advocates say it disadvantages faster-growing communities that have long-standing and worsening infrastructure deficits.^{xxxviii xxxix} 

Rural economies are also facing challenges related to a weakening tax base and dependence on staple resources that often leave them subject to the boom-and-bust periods created by external economic forces.³⁴ In 2024, oil and gas companies owed rural municipalities $252 million dollars in unpaid property taxes, up from $173 million in 2019.^xl Political and economic reforms and environmental goals (e.g., emissions policies, alternative energy expansion) have pushed municipalities to engage in proactive entrepreneurial activities that, while sometimes risky, promote innovation, independence, and resilience.^{37, xli xlii xliii} 

In hopes of bolstering the rural economy, the Government of Alberta recently appointed a minister responsible for rural economic development.³¹ Since the appointment, the minister has led the creation of the Economic Development in Rural Alberta Plan (EDRAP), an initiative that follows on the heels of a poorly received Economic Action Plan and Strategy for Rural Alberta revealed by the previous conservative government in 2014. As a part of EDRAP, the new Small Community Opportunity Program offers grants between $20,000 and $100,000 for Indigenous and small communities to increase capacity in agriculture, local economic development, and small business support. This support is intended to provide some financial backing as communities innovate and grow their local economies.  

​​​​​Case study: Altario’s Agriculture Academy School Program 

Altario is a hamlet in Special Area No. 4 (east-central Alberta), with a population of 1,246 people. Hamlets like Altario are small, unincorporated communities with five or more dwellings and contain land used for non-residential purposes.^xliv Altario is considered both rural and remote as the closest town, Hanna, is 209 km away. The region’s economy is largely agriculture-based, with many community members involved in multi-generational farming. 

In 2014, Altario’s school was at risk of closing due to high staff turnover, low enrolments,​ and​ a declining population. With recent and ongoing changes to public education funding in Alberta,^xlv many rural school districts face intense resource constraints and the risk of decreased quality of services, teacher layoffs, or closure. In an effort to revitalize their education programming, the Altario school and community converted an unused outdoor skating rink into a community garden. Long-time community members, along with newcomers from Ukraine and South Africa, have reported feeling that the garden provided a sense of purpose and belongin​g. This initiative marked ​the beginning of the Altario Agriculture Academy (AAA). 

The AAA has now evolved into a multifaceted agricultural program. In the spring of 2018, school staff wanted to take the community garden a step further and expand it by including livestock. The school began with purchasing cattle and building a shelter. With a desire to grow the program, the school Principal Van Lagen asked the Board of Trustees to fund the construction of a barn. The barn not only houses livestock, which generates revenue (i.e., financial capital), but it is also a key asset as a community hub, providing a space for events like dances, student presentations on research projects, and cattle auctions to reinvest proceeds into the program.  

Students from kindergarten to grade 12 can choose to be involved in the AAA program. The student participation rate is approximately 90%. Student roles and responsibilities range from feeding animals, running the grocer and school store, to gaining experience with livestock management. The students are the drivers of the program; they present new ideas on what they would like to learn, with program leaders offering support as needed. Program leaders themselves often seek advice from their parents and grandparents while teaching and advising students in the program – as a result, intergenerational knowledge transfer (i.e., human capital) is a key element in the AAA’s success.  

The AAA has also contributed to a stronger sense of community in Altario (i.e., social capital). The school has been described as the heart of the community. People visit the school regularly and for a range of reasons, including to pick up fresh produce grown by the hydroponics program students, or to enjoy baked goods made by students. Meat from the school’s livestock program goes to support school lunches. Similarly, community members volunteer their time, knowledge, and equipment as needed in support of the school. 

The case study of Altario demonstrates the vital role rural schools can play in fostering social and human capital through civic engagement, especially in times of austerity budgets and political de-skilling of rural communities.^xlvi The exchange of intergenerational knowledge has enriched students’ educational experiences, ensured preservation of traditional farming practices, and contributed to the sustainability of the community’s agricultural legacy. Such efforts are especially important given the continuing deprioritizing of rural development at the provincial level. The ​​​​AAA is not just a success in agriculture; it symbolizes rural revitalization and resilience by turning a community garden into the heart of a flourishing hamlet.  

The Future of Rural Alberta  

In the 2021 State of Rural Canada, three challenges were identified for rural Alberta’s future, and they remain so: 1) a lack of explicit rural developmental policy design; 2) rural community economic development and funding; and 3) the urban/rural divide. These challenges may now be augmented, but not replaced, by: 1) the need for building sustainable rural communities; 2) the need for linking rural economic and community development with energy transitions, land use, fiscal, social and environmental policy; and 3) finding ways to bridge the urban-rural divide across an increasingly diverse ideological, social, political, economic and cultural landscape. 

Building sustainable rural communities  

Given recent and projected immigration trends, rural Alberta also needs more robust strategies to attract and incentivize newcomers to stay. Rural immigrants are disadvantaged by limited labour market options and per-immigrant funding models, which are based on the current number of immigrants in a community and the estimated costs of settling a single immigrant.^xlvii Rapidly expanding rural communities have experienced a delay in service expansion for newcomers. If funding models were to incorporate population projection modeling, communities aiming to increase immigration rates could better ensure timely development of a base level of immigration services. 

Rural development and energy transition policy 

Rural Alberta faces significant barriers to innovation that are often rooted in history, and a fiscal approach of spend more (now), often followed by do more with less. This pro-private, anti-public approach continues to be reinforced by a provincial government that often seeks to govern “in absentia”^xlviii and seeks a minimalist perspective on the role of the state. These barriers have resulted in a lack of structures to support innovation and entrepreneurship. It is too early to tell what the long-term impact of EDRAP will be given its recent implementation in 2022.  

As the federal government continues to strive for a low- to net zero-emissions economy, rural communities will require additional support and tailored approaches for a just transition. Key areas for action on a just transition include: 1) proactive strategies for energy transition from senior levels of government; 2) more direct communication between the private sector and local governments; 3) place-based planning; and 4) continued bottom-up initiatives in rural economic innovation such as leveraging assets (e.g., land, water, rail) to attract industry, the creation of recreation areas, increased investment in tourism, establishing new infrastructure within municipal boundaries, and continued regional collaborative efforts.³⁴ As it stands, rural communities face many challenges to a just transition, including recent changes to renewable energy policy. New land use laws aim to protect undefined “pristine viewscapes” from wind projects^xlix and limit renewable electricity development despite no evidence to support the government’s claims of its negative impacts on agriculture.^l In addition, Alberta’s highly critiqued Mine Financial Security Program’s security investment funds have increased by only 71 cents in a decade.^{li lii} The program has accrued a total of $1.68 billion in security against the industry’s estimated liability cost of $130 billion, leaving taxpayers vulnerable to shouldering the cost of future energy transitions.^liii  

Bridging the urban-rural divide 

Alberta’s long-standing populist, and even sovereigntist, history and aspirations continue to influence Albertans’ policy perceptions and fuel political polarization. In Banack’s (2021)^liv research on rural Albertans’ political opinions, many participants expressed anti-establishment sentiments and feelings of alienation (e.g., the government’s lack of respect ​for rural​ communities in the form of cutbacks and perceived inaction). Their perspectives were often rooted in the belief that the collective rural identity, composed of traits including common sense, hard work, self-reliance, and equal treatment, was under threat from both newcomers and an increasingly urban population. Given the province’s reliance on immigration, all Albertan communities stand to benefit from improved dialogue with, and education on, minority groups. For rural communities, interventions to address prejudice and misinformation should include empathy for residents’ feelings of alienation, as well as acknowledgement of the pitfalls of an us versus them dynamic.⁵⁶ 

Conclusion 

This chapter presents perspectives on the evolving political, demographic, and developmental landscape of the province of Alberta. While Alberta has been portrayed as largely conservative-leaning, we highlight the growing diversity of the province, and the accompanying challenges. Despite a recent and substantial budgetary surplus, Alberta’s economy faces significant and long-standing challenges. The renewal of the Firewall Agenda and the province’s clear dependence on conventional energy revenues pose not only economic, but social concerns as well. Rural development has historically been a low political priority. This trend leaves smaller communities to manage services on their own and is embedded in a political history of governments that seek to get out of the way, even as they become increasingly interventionist.  

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