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Nova Scotia: A turning point for rural communities? 

Doug Lionais

Introduction  

Rural Nova Scotia stands at the precipice of profound transformation. After enduring decades of population decline and economic stagnation, these regions are now witnessing a resurgence in population growth. While this resurgence promises heightened economic activity, it also heralds a wave of new challenges and pressures. 

Nova Scotia is currently undergoing a remarkable shift from a period of stagnant population growth over the past two decades, coupled with dire forecasts of decline issued just 10 years ago,i to a surge in population numbers across the province. For instance, in 2022, provincial population growth jumped from a typical annual rate of just over 1% growth to 2.9%,ii surpassing the Canadian growth rate of 1.8%. Notably, this population growth in Nova Scotia is occurring in rural as well as urban areas, though not uniformly. The population growth rate for Census subdivisions with populations less than 5,000 people in 2022, for instance, was equal to that of the growth rate of Canada overall (1.8%).  

The population uptick in rural Nova Scotia is attributed to both inter-provincial and international migration, particularly international students. Rural areas of Nova Scotia still have a negative natural rate of population change (births less deaths). The lack of a natural rate of growth in rural areas has been compensated by inter-provincial migration and, particularly in some areas, net international migration. Cape Breton county, for instance, saw a net increase of 2,045 international migrants in 2022iii largely driven by international students arriving at Cape Breton University. Interprovincial migration, however, was more evenly spread among rural areas as remote workers continue to move into the province; a trend first observed during the COVID pandemic. 

Indigenous populations in Nova Scotia continue to grow as well. Most Indigenous people in Nova Scotia live in rural communities and small population centres.iv Further, the Indigenous population of Nova Scotia tends to be younger than the non-Indigenous population and has a higher birth rate. However, not all of these trends are accurately captured by official statistics. For instance, the growth rate of Indigenous people in Nova Scotia from the 2016 to the 2021 census is 1.8%. This figure likely understates the true growth, potentially significantly. The 2021 census was captured during the height of the COVID crisis, which impacted census participation in a population already under-represented in the census.  

Overview of Rural Nova Scotia 

Rural Economies 

Rural economies in Nova Scotia remain anchored in traditional industries with much higher concentrations of jobs in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and resource extraction. However, service sector jobs are also critically important to rural communities with health care, education, and retail trade providing significant sources of jobs in rural communities.v Tourism is also seen as a key sector in Nova Scotia and impacts rural communities. The tourism sector continues to re-build post COVID with 2023 visitation numbers increasing by 14% over the previous year, but still 6% below pre-pandemic levels.vi Economic growth in rural regions brings a mix of benefits and challenges. For instance, where tourism has found success, that success is often met with the challenge of appropriate labour supply and housing. The community of Inverness, as an example, has benefited from the growth of the internationally renowned golf course located there. However, that growth has placed pressure on local infrastructure, housing markets and labour markets, particularly during the summer tourism season. While economic growth and diversification is still urgent in many rural communities, this example demonstrates a need to manage that growth in the interest of rural populations.    

In contrast to many settler communities experiencing exogenous forces of growth, economic growth in Indigenous communities has signs of being more endogenous. For instance, in 2021 the coalition of Mi’kmaw First Nations from Nova Scotia and Newfoundland purchased the majority shares of Clearwater Seafoods, North America’s largest integrated seafood company. The historical deal demonstrates a visionary Indigenous-lead approach to economic reconciliation. Similarly, Millbrook First Nation’s announcement of We’kopekitk, an inland shipping terminal, in 2023 shows similar large scale Indigenous-lead economic development. The Indigenous economy in Nova Scotia continues to grow significantly faster then the non-Indigenous economy, at approximately 18% between 2012 and 2020,vii while the provincial rate of growth was just 5.6%.viii In Nova Scotia, the Indigenous economy contributed $1.3B to the provincial GDP and employed over 23,000 people in 2020.7  

Current Issues and Realities for Rural Nova Scotia 

Several pressing issues confront rural Nova Scotia, notably an aging population, housing shortages, healthcare access challenges, and the burgeoning impacts of climate change. 

Aging Populations 

Nova Scotia, along with the other Atlantic provinces, has a relatively old and aging population. Nova Scotia’s population aged 65 or older in the 2021 census was 22.2%, a growth of 2.3% over the previous census. By comparison, only 19% of the Canadian population was 65 or older. Further, the issue of an aging population is mostly felt in rural areas. For instance, while the 65 and over population in Halifax Regional Municipality was just 17.3 % in 2021, this population rate was over 25% in all but three of the other counties in the province, including 34.2% for Guysborough, 31.3% for Queens and 30.3% for Digby.ix Aging rural populations has significant implications on other sectors including housing and health care that are already facing challenges. 

Housing 

While housing has been a national issue, it is also permeating into rural areas. In rural Nova Scotia, housing faces several challenges. First, as populations age, there is a need for either new forms of housing for seniors (care homes, etc.) or a need to renovate current single dwelling stock for the needs of seniors who are looking to age in place. Second, public housing, though lacking across the province, is particularly scarce in rural areas which limits the ability of families to find affordable housing. Third, affordability has further been impacted as housing markets in rural areas have been experiencing high growth in prices. This trend has been further exacerbated in areas of tourist attraction where housing markets have been pressured by second home and short-term-rental investment buyers. Using the example of Inverness again, housing prices in the county increased 78% between 2019 and 2023 compared to an increase of 35% nationally.x,xi 

Healthcare  

Rural Nova Scotia is also facing challenges with healthcare access with added pressures from the aging population. Rural Nova Scotians face a chronic shortage of doctors and other medical professionals. Thus, the ability to provide healthcare in rural areas is going down while the health care needs of the aging population is increasing. Further, the lack of doctors and nurses has led to increased ER closures, particularly in rural areas. At the same time, ambulance response times, which are already longer in rural areas, are going up dramatically. Combined, these challenges leave rural populations in a more precarious position regarding their health care. 

Climate change 

Finally, rural Nova Scotia is increasingly feeling the impacts of climate change. In 2023, wildfires burned over 25,000 hectares of land in Nova Scotia, a record level vastly exceeding a normal year; a typical year in Nova Scotia has less than 1,000 hectares burned. The majority of the area burned came from one fire in Shelburne County that covered 23,500 hectares.xii The intensity and size of the wildfires were made worse by unusually dry and warm conditions through the first half of 2023. The dry conditions through the month of May prompted the province to implement a ban on all activity and travel within the woods. Increased size and severity of wildfires are expected climate change related impacts for Nova Scotia. 

Climate change will also impact rural communities via their relationship to the ocean. Many of Nova Scotia’s rural communities are situated on the ocean and none are immune from its impacts. Sea level change and higher storm surges directly impact coastal communities. Sea surface and deep-water temperatures are also going up, leading to more frequent and powerful storm systems. For instance, Hurricane Fiona, which hit Nova Scotia in 2022 was the costliest weather event to hit Atlantic Canada, causing over $385 million in insured damages in Nova Scotia.xiii Increased regularity and intensity of storms has meant more frequent and longer power outages, especially in rural areas. After Fiona, some areas remained without power for over two weeks; prolonged power outages are becoming another climate issue for rural Nova Scotians.     

Warmer ocean waters also mean changes to marine life. Cooler water species are on the decline as warmer water species are beginning to arrive. All of this adds stress on coastal communities and their economies as they must adapt to more extreme weather and shifting fisheries. For instance, the snow crab and northern shrimp fisheries are expected to be negatively impacted by climate change while the lobster fishery will have more mixed impacts.xiv 

While climate change continues to be an issue for rural Nova Scotians, addressing the issue has been mixed. For instance, in 2019, the provincial government, with full party support, brought in the Coastal Protection Act,xv a piece of legislation to regulate development on coastal property with respect to climate change. However, in 2024, the province announced that it would not proclaim the act and downloaded responsibility to municipalities and private landowners despite widespread support of the bill from both municipalities and citizens.xvi 

Rural Nova Scotia is at a moment of abrupt change across a variety of factors. While population trends are reversing in many areas, those new population numbers are placing strains on rural communities not equipped to handle the growth. Housing prices which may seem affordable to newcomers, are increasing beyond the range of existing populations. The health care system is also being stretched in order to deal with both newcomers and an aging population. Finally, climate change is having multiple impacts on rural communities. 

Case Study – Cape Breton Food Hub  

Local food has numerous advantages. In rural areas, food producers are essential to the economy, while for consumers, locally sourced food offers security and superior taste and nutrition. Environmentally, local food boasts a lower carbon footprint. However, bridging the gap between producers and consumers has historically posed challenges. Enter the Cape Breton Food Hub, a ground-breaking initiative revolutionizing the way we connect local agriculture and producers, which has been operating for nearly a decade. 

The Cape Breton Food Hub connects farmers and producers to consumers through a central ordering and distribution system. The Food Hub operates through an online ordering system. Producers post each week what they have available. Consumers place orders from Friday to Monday. The products are then sent to a centralized hub, packaged according to customer orders and either delivered to the consumer’s door, via local food delivery services, or made available for pickup at local food hubs. Restaurants may also become members and receive direct delivery on a weekly basis. Volunteers are integral to the Food Hub operation, helping to sort and pack orders and hand out orders at delivery hubs. The Food Hub also runs a retail store, a commercial kitchen where producer-members can create value-added products, and conducts educational, networking and food-security initiatives.  

The Food Hub started in 2015 as two-year pilot project. After a successful pilot phase, the project was incorporated as a multi-stakeholder non-profit cooperative. As a multi-stakeholder cooperative, members of the cooperative include both producers and consumers. In order to sell into or buy from the cooperative, one must be a member. Those members then can vote for the Board of Directors at the annual general meeting. By operating on a non-profit basis, any surplus is reinvested, which ensures sustained operations. 

Since its establishment, the Food Hub has realized significant growth and success. There are currently 72 producers listed with the Food Hub. They are distributed widely across Cape Breton Island. The Food Hub has been credited with expanded farm production and employment as demand for local food has grown.xvii 

When COVID hit in 2020, the importance of the Food Hub in providing food security for consumers and access to a market for producers was thrown into sharp contrast. When local restaurants and farmers markets closed during COVID, the Food Hub enabled local producers to reach consumers. In the first year of the pandemic, the Food Hub customer base doubled, and sales tripled.xviii Around the same time, the Food Hub purchased a building to act as a retail outlet and a processing facility. The processing facility was seen as a key strategic tool to expand on seasonal food production, enable more value-added products, and incubate new businesses.xix More recently the Food Hub has purchased a refrigerated delivery van enabling them to take on more of their own distribution rather than hiring out. 

Today, the Cape Breton Food Hub stands as a beacon of community resilience and connectivity, bridging the gap between rural producers and urban consumers. It not only makes buying local feasible but also provides producers with a stable market. With the potential for further expansion, it promises to unlock new opportunities for all stakeholders, cementing its status as a transformative force in local food networks. 

Conclusion: The Future of Rural in Nova Scotia 

Rural Nova Scotia is diverse and evolving, currently at a crucial juncture. Though discussing rural Nova Scotia uniformly is challenging, it’s evident that these areas face a mix of challenges and opportunities. After decades of population decline and economic stagnation, rural regions now confront growth-related issues. Increases in both interprovincial and international migration have revitalized these areas but also strained housing, labor, and infrastructure. Various global and national trends, from pandemic-induced migrations to a national housing and healthcare crisis, are driving these challenges. 

While these forces may not be local in nature, there is clearly a need for Nova Scotia to address these issues within its own jurisdiction. The province has, arguably, seen success in mitigating an aging population with an influx of younger immigrants. However, attracting immigrants is only the first step; providing adequate infrastructure for a growing population is equally crucial. With regards to housing,  the province urgently needs to expand its housing stock and focus on not just the quantity but also the type, affordability, and geographic distribution of housing units. An inclusive housing strategy would have a focus on rural populations as well as other at-risk populations.xx  

Long-term quality of life in rural communities requires appropriate levels and forms of health care provision. While Nova Scotia is supporting some initiatives for rural Nova Scotians, such as a new medical school at Cape Breton University focused on rural family physicians, there is clear need for more investment in rural health.  

Climate change poses perhaps the greatest threat to the world today. Nova Scotia must contribute to a just transition to a zero-carbon economy while preparing for and adapting to current climate impacts. 

Rural areas are again coping with forces of change; most often, forces not of their own making. The exception to this is Indigenous communities who, though continuing to face many challenges due to the legacies of colonization, demonstrate more intention and purpose in the direction of their economic development. As rural Nova Scotia manages through change in these times, it is perhaps best to take the lead from these Indigenous communities, and to be purposeful in the vision and direction of that change. To do so would also call on the strengths of the Antigonish Movement, the movement that animated much of rural Nova Scotia a century ago, challenging rural communities to be “masters of their own destiny.”xxi  

References 

References

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